Thoughts on Clay Court season so far and the French Open

No one has dominated the clay court like Nadal. So far this year, he's won 3 titles, including 2 Master Series Shield. He seems to be getting better each year. There's no one who's even insight of beating him. He's lost one set so far in three tournaments. Unless he gets injured, the beginning of June will see Nadal lift his fifth straight French title. Now, the race is more for the second spot at the final. So who are the players who can get there?
1. Federer: he's been struggling on all surfaces. He's lost early at Monte Carlo and improved upon last year's result by making it to the semi-final. In the semi, he was up a break in the second set and lost, up a break in the third set and lost that set as well. He's done that twice this year against Djokovic. I think he's got a mental block that he needs to get over.
2. Djokovic: he's done well the last two clay tournaments, made to the final, but lost to Nadal each time. His confidence is strong and he should go very far.
3. Murray: he has not shown good results this clay season, losing early in Rome (where he was comfortably leading). Hard court is his best service and I don't see him going far at all.

So, who does the second best spot at Roland Garros belong to? It depends on how the draw shakes up? If Djokovic lands on Federer's half, Federer will have a tough time. Based on past results, Djokovic will make it to the final against Nadal. If not, Federer will have a fourth chance to take another set off Nadal. It doesn't matter anyways because it's a best of 5 and Nadal will take 3 sets before anyone takes 2 from him.

Thoughts on Indian Wells 2009

I am glad tennis is back in session after a two month layoff. I am glad to have Roger Federer playing again. I am excited to see how he deals with adversity and fight his way to the top of men’s tennis again. However, with each time he plays, there’s possibility of disappointment. Disappointments of him not playing at his potential and winning tournaments as he did two years previous.

Indian Wells was the first ATP Tour 1000 event of the season. ATP has changed their tournament naming to coincide with the maximum number of points a winner will get. For example, ATP Tour 1000 winner gets 1000 points. This helps a lot in term of figuring out who how the ranking stacks up and the different possibilities after the tournament is over.

I followed some matches online while watch a few important ones on TV. If you don’t know already, Rafael Nadal won the tournament. He deserves the title because he played the best in the tournament (except for one hiccup against Nalbanian). Here are some thoughts:
• Federer lost to Murray in the semi-final in their fourth consecutive meeting. I watched this one on TV and I was quite disappointed with Federer’s performance. The first two sets were good tennis but the third was terrible. Federer made too many unforced errors to give away the set. One notable, serving 1-2, love-15, Federer hit a ball that Murray could not get to but along the way, Murray felt down. He screamed as if he had broken one of his legs. He stood up 30 second later and won almost every single point until match point. Federer got distracted by the incident and his focus was gone. First, Federer should not get distracted by such acts. Second, these acts have been patterns in Murray’s game. He does these things on purpose to get other players off their games. You can see it by the way he lags his body around each point and how he makes big scenes out of little things. These acts are distasteful and have no place in tennis. Win by your talent and show some sportsmanship. I am glad Nadal did not get distracted by such theatrics in the finals when Murray kept at it with the umpire about a plastic bag being blown on court and there was no let.
• Djokovic lost again to Roddick. After the lost, Djokovic commented that Roddick did not do anything special and that he made all the mistakes. Roddick served 82% of his first serves in and Roddick has a booming serve. To ignore this fact is distasteful. Djokovic has made many comments like this before and he felt the crowd at the US Open during a match against Federer. Djokovic will fall to 4th or lower in the ranking by the end of the season. He needs to get his attitude in check and be an ambassador of tennis.
• In regards to Roddick, he has gotten a lot better with his new coach, Larry Stefanki. He’s fitter and is more able to play with the top players. However, this loopy forehand and backhand are still weaknesses and they can’t be fixed at this stage of his career. He will be top 10 for the next few years but not top 5.
• Nadal crushed Murray in the final. Nadal is still playing his topspin forehand but he’s very consistent. Once he gets a return in, it’s hard for most players to beat him on the ground strokes. The reason for his is Nadal does not beat himself. He rarely makes unforced errors. His error count is usually 10-15 per match over 3 sets. Don’t beat yourself, let the other player beat you. With the clay season coming up, I can’t see anyone getting the top spot from him this season.

It was another disappointment seeing Federer lose and not held up the trophy. It’s been a while since he’s held up a trophy (maybe 6 months). He used to win 8 tournaments a season but that’s dropped down considerably. What can he do to win? MINIMIZE his error count. Federer still have the best shots in tennis but he beats himself by making too many unforced errors. Minimize the error count by playing with larger margins. His court coverage will keep him in the match most of the time. Also, keep focus on the match. During the Aussie Open and his latest match, he lost focused and lost the match. He could have won the Aussie Open if he kept his composure and won the semi-final match if he didn’t let the fall break his rhythm.

Andy Roddick won't win another big title

Andy Roddick has been USA's top tennis players for 7 years now, with small period in between where James Blake took over. He's won a major and came close to winning a few others. His serve is the biggest in the game. No other players can consistently server in the 130s all the time. However, based on the way he's playing and the way other players are playing, this chance of winning another big tile (not just Major) is very slim. There are a few reasons for this:
1. The serve will win many points but once the other player gets the serve in play, Roddick has a 50% chance of winning the point. Against top 20 players, the percentage is alot lower.
2. This forehand is a big liability. Roddick has a loopy forehand that has a lot of spin but not much power. Also, he tends to push the forehand instead of striking at it. Therefore, the other players have alot of time to get to the ball.
3. The backhand is not a weapon. The backhand is consistent but not a weapon. He cannot blow people off the court with the backhand. He can stay in the rally and wait for a mistake but can't set up a finishing blow.
4. The top 4 players have gotten way better than the rest of the pack. In order to win a title, Roddick would have to beat 2 top 4 players. He will need luck to win one and winning two would be almost impossible.
Roddick has two ways of beating the above odds. One, he has to capitalize on his serve. He needs to win more free points and finish points early. Practice on serve and volley and come to the net more. Second, he has to play more aggressive and take more chances. Since he will hold his serve most of the time, he has to attack at the first opportunity. Hit a big flat forehand, come in after it and put the ball away with a volley. If he applies the above, he might have a second wind to his career.

Roger Federer is not the greatest of all time

I am a Roger Federer fan and have been following his career since he started his amazing run five years ago. He has set many records will set many more before his career is over. However, to be considered the greatest, one has to beat the best during his life time. Even though Federer has amazing records against almost everyone, his dismal record against Rafael Nadal blemishes his great of all time status. Of their encounters, Nadal is 13-6 against Federer. That means Federer win less than one out of every three meeting. One can not be considered the greatest of all time when during the peak of one’s career can not find it in oneself to beat another player. Federer has lost five in a row to Nadal and who knows when (if) he will snap that streak. I do hope he will and that by the end of his career has a winning record against Nadal. But unless he changes his approach to playing Nadal, I see a slim chance of that happening.

How can Federer achieve the #1 ranking again?

The last four years have been great for Roger Federer, winning at least 2 Grand Slams each year. His winning percentage has exceeded those of the past and will not easily be matched by those in the future. However, the last year has shown a chip in the Federer's armor. He lost more matches than he did before. He lost matches that he normally would not lose and losing to players that no one thought he would lose to. What can be the cause of this? It could only be Nadal. In early 2004, Federer reached the Nasdaq Final in Miami. He encountered a relatively unknown player named Nadal. People thought it would be an easy win for him. However, the first two sets went to Nadal and the frustration showed on Federer's face. He digged in and was able to win easily in the fifth set. However, this set the tones for things to come. The coming French Open showed it. Nadal became the hottest player on clay coming into the French. He has won all the tune up events and people were saying that this tournament was between two players: Federer and Nadal. These two are to meet in the semifinal as everyone predicted. Federer came out with confidence and took the first set 6-1. Everyone thought Federer would take the match but only then to have Nadal come back and take the second set 6-1. It was the best of 3. Nadal won the next two sets to close out the match. Federer had chances in the match but squandered too many break chances to have any chances of winning. Federer continued to dominate on other surfaces while Nadal struggled. However, the clay was Nadal's surface. The next year saw Federer and Nadal meeting in the final. It was another close contest but Federer lost in 4 again, squandering many break chances along the way. The events carried out the next year and Federer lost again in 4. The matches took the confidence out of Federer on clay. It was as if he gave up the surface. 2008 was the worse showing for Federer against Nadal. Federer made the final for the third year in a row even though he had lost his title at the Australian Open. However, he lacked confidence when playing against Nadal in the final. The 2008 French Open final was the worse beating of his life, losing 1,2,0. How can the number one player lose by such a margin. The stats showed that he made 1 out of 17 break chances. Such a beating took its toll on Federer. They both made the Wimbledon final and his lack of confidence against Nadal showed again on his favorite surface. He lost the first two sets 6-4 and 6-4 and people were wondering about the changing of the guards. Nadal has been getting better each year on other surfaces while Federer seem to get worse on clay. Federer came back and won the third set in a tie-break. The fourth set also went to a tie-break. Nadal had two match points but nerve found him on the first point and he double-faulted. The second match point was erase by a wonderful Federer backhand. Federer ended up winning the four set. The momentum has changed and there's a feeling that Nadal would go away. The fifth set went to 7-7 and into the darkness of the night. Nadal claim a break and went on to win. Federer was heart broken. He lost Wimbledon but more than that, he lost his confidence against Nadal and the chip in the armour was getting larger. He lost early on the hard court events. People counted him out for the US Open but he ended up beating Murray in the final. It was a high note to an average year. The 2009 Australian Open saw another Federer and Nadal final. Nadal was playing great and Federer was matching him stroke by stroke. A lack of focus saw Federer lost the first set. He refocused and won the second. He had many chances to break to win the third but lacked focus and played defensive and let the third set go in a tie-break. He refocused and played great to win the fourth. However, lack of pressure and confidence found him again and he made to many unforced errors and lost easily in the fifth. Federer lost the match. However, the match showed that if Federer play a great match, there's no one that can match his skills. To our original question, how can Federer achive the #1 ranking again? Federer can do this by believing he is the best player in the world. He must forget about the past, play aggressive to win the big points, be composed in the big matches, accept that Nadal will always hit to his backhand, and step around the Nadal serve to the backhand to rip the forehand. Federer can beat anyone playing from the baseline and defensive. However, he can not do this against Nadal. He must be aggressive, and attack the Nadal forehand with his own forehand. By doing the above, Federer will win matches on grass and hard court. Believe and aggressiveness will bring him the French Open final.

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